Strategy Overview

How OddsVault turns probability into profit

We don't make bold bets. We make boring ones, thousands of them, every day. Here's the math behind why that works.

01

High-Probability Only

Every position targets outcomes with 85-98% implied probability. We only enter markets where the math heavily favors resolution in our direction.

02

Massive Diversification

1,000+ positions daily across completely uncorrelated markets. Sports, politics, weather, economics, tech. No single market can hurt the vault.

03

Compounding Returns

Each position earns a small margin (2-15%). But reinvested daily across thousands of positions, the compounding effect is dramatic over weeks and months.

The Math

Why small, boring bets beat big, exciting ones.

Single Position
+3.2%
Average return per resolved position. A contract at 93 cents resolving to $1.00 = 7.5% gross, minus the ~50% that resolve in days not hours.
Daily Volume
1,200+
Positions opened per day across Polymarket and Kalshi. Each sized at 0.1-0.5% of total vault value.
Win Rate
91.3%
Historical simulated win rate. Losses are expected and sized to be absorbed. A 5% loss on a 0.2% position = 0.01% portfolio impact.
90-Day Compound
+27.4%
Simulated vault return over 90 days of continuous operation. That's ~0.27% daily compounding, net of all losses.

Risk Management

🛡

Position Sizing Limits

No single position exceeds 0.5% of vault value. Even a total loss on one position barely registers at the portfolio level.

Daily Loss Circuit Breaker

If the vault drops more than 1.5% in a single day, new position entry pauses automatically until conditions normalize.

📈

Correlation Monitoring

Markets can be secretly correlated (e.g., political events affecting multiple contracts). Our system tracks cross-market exposure and limits correlated bets.

Platform Diversification

Capital is spread across Polymarket and Kalshi to reduce platform-specific risk: liquidity issues, outages, or resolution disputes.

How We Compare

Strategy Annual Return (est.) Risk Minimum Liquidity
OddsVault 80-150%* Medium $1,000 Daily
S&P 500 Index 8-12% Medium $1 Daily
High-Yield Savings 4-5% Very Low $0 Instant
Crypto Trading -50% to 500% Very High $10 Instant
Real Estate 6-10% Low-Medium $50,000+ Months

*Simulated returns based on backtested strategy. Past simulated performance does not guarantee future results. All investments carry risk of loss.

Ready to see the numbers?

Explore our simulated vault performance and run your own scenarios with the portfolio simulator.

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